Economics Seminar Series Schedule

Presenter(s): Adrian Lopes
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s):
Date: Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Time: 4:50-5:50 pm
Place: SBA2060
Title: Habit Formation in Crop Residue Burning 
Abstract: The burning of post-harvest crop residue is a major policy issue in several developing countries because of harmful environmental and public health consequences. Despite its association with reductions in farmland quality, farmers choose to burn residues since it is a quick and inexpensive disposal method that helps prepare farms for subsequent cropping cycles. While the literature extensively examines the reasons for burning rice residue, little attention is paid to the same regarding wheat residue production– mostly because the latter is not typically thought to be burned. However, we find evidence to the contrary in the residue management practices of 301 Indian farmers whom we tracked over two consecutive seasons of rice and wheat. We examine the extent to which farmers form environmentally destructive habits of burning wheat residue if they previously burned rice residue. After controlling for common factors that contribute to residue burning, we determine that farmers are 21 percent more likely to burn wheat residue if they had burned rice residue. Burning is resorted to despite a positive net benefit of selling wheat residue. Identifying drivers of residue burning can facilitate more effective agricultural policies. Wider residue markets could enable pro-environmental choices.

Presenter(s): Ajalavat Viriyavipart  
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Paan Jindapon (University of Alabama) and Pacharasut Sujarittanonta (Chulalongkorn University)
Date: Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Time: 5:00-6:00 pm
Place: SBA2060
Title: Income Interdependence and Informal Risk Sharing: The Effects of Future Interactions and Directed Altruism 
Abstract: We propose a framework to analyze the effects of income correlation between two players on risk sharing without commitment. In theory, the likelihood that a risk-sharing agreement is self-enforcing decreases with income correlation. We tested this prediction in the laboratory with negative, zero, and positive correlation coefficients and observed the largest average transfer in the positive-correlation treatment. This surprising result suggests that experiencing the same state of income could create a social bond and induce altruism between the two players. Therefore, informal risk sharing can be successful in a group with social identity despite high income interdependence.

Presenter(s): Ismail H Genc
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Mohammad Arzaghi
Date: Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Time: 5:00-6:00
Place:  SBA2060
Title: Impact of Syrian Immigration on House Prices in Istanbul 
Abstract: Covid is a natural experiment which forced a lot of people to go online for shopping purposes. Some of these people probably would not have tried online shopping otherwise. The question is whether covid has resulted in an ever-lasting impact on our shopping behavior. In this study, we empirically test such a hypothesis and arrive at some interesting and arguably unexpected results.

Presenter(s): Adrian Lopes
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s):
Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
Time: 5:00-6:00 pm
Place: SBA2050
Title: An Organized Crime Model of Illicit Trade in Pangolin Scales and Elephant Ivory 
Abstract: Recent patterns in endangered species trafficking have witnessed a shift towards multiple animal derivative products in overseas shipments. Organized crime syndicates smuggle mixed contraband via shipping companies that use their licenses and sea routes to screen illegal products with legitimate exports. Port seizures have revealed that pangolin scales and elephant ivory are shipped together and disguised using scrap plastics, wood products, or frozen meat items. Pangolin scales are used in traditional eastern medicine and possessing carved ivory continues to be associated with societal status in East Asia. Illicit trade threatens the longevity of such species. I develop a model of an organized crime manager who plans for contraband shipments based on an expected net return. The model numerically yields a number of planned shipments for variations in the content of scales and ivory, and a contraband-contingent probability of detection by port authorities. Planned shipments are influenced by detection probabilities and the increasing content of one contraband type at the expense of the other– suggesting a range of substitutability between contraband types. A dynamic population model of pangolins and elephants is coupled with the syndicate manager’s model to depict and discuss probable extinction scenarios and the realized returns of the syndicate.

Presenter(s): Adam Zaremba
Affiliation: Montpellier Business School (France) & Poznan University of Economics and Business (Poland)
Coauthor(s): Nusret Cakici (Fordham University), Christian Fieberg (University of Bremen, University of Luxembourg, and Concordia University), Daniel Metko (University of Bremen and Concordia University)
Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: Machine Learning Goes Global: Cross-Sectional Return Predictability in International Stock Markets 
Abstract: We examine return predictability with machine learning in 46 international stock markets. We calculate 148 stock characteristics and use them to feed a repertoire of different models. The algorithms extract predictability mainly from simple, yet popular, factor types—such as momentum, reversal, value, and size. All individual models generate substantial economic gains; however, combining them proves to be particularly effective. A global value-weighted forecast combination strategy earns 1.51% per month at an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.49. Despite the overall robustness, the machine learning performance varies substantially across models, countries, and firm size environments. The strategies work best in small stocks, as well as in markets with many listed firms and high idiosyncratic risk limiting arbitrage.

Presenter(s): Khusrav Gaibulloev
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Ayesha Ali (Economics, Lahore University of Management Sciences), Khusrav Gaibulloev (AUS) and Javed Younas (AUS)
Date: Tuesday, April 19th, 2022
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: Do Reward and Reprimand Policies Work in Reducing Electricity Distribution Losses? 
Abstract: Electricity distribution losses due to theft and non-repayment of bills are a costly burden for the power sector in developing countries, leading to significant financial losses and poor service delivery. We partner with the largest electric utility in Pakistan, to study the effect of a unique reward and reprimand policy in curbing electricity distribution losses in Karachi. Under this policy, the utility categorizes feeders into very high, high, medium, or low losses, based on average losses in the past twelve months, and allocates electricity outage duration across feeders in proportion to distribution losses. To incentivize loss reduction, the distribution company periodically updates the outage category at the feeder level. We apply an instrumental variable and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to monthly electricity data at feeder level to evaluate the effect of the policy on within-feeder change in losses. Electricity outage duration predicted by the policy is used as an instrument for actual power outage duration. Our estimates imply that an additional hour of power outages reduces electricity losses by 3 to 5 percentage points; this translates into a 12%-15% reduction in monthly electricity losses for the average feeder. We find smaller effects for feeders in high and very high loss areas.

Presenter(s): Natalie Koch
Affiliation: Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University
Coauthor(s):
Date: Monday, February 28th, 2022
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: Renewable energy and the future of Gulf resource economies 
Abstract: This talk examines the political economy of the Gulf’s ongoing “post-oil” transition, focusing on the UAE’s investment in renewable energy, domestically and internationally, and the possibilities and challenges of recent initiatives to diversify beyond its historically oil-dominated resource economy.

Presenter(s): Mohammad Arzaghi
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Ismail H Genc, & Shaabana Naik (Economics, American University of Sharjah)
Date: Tuesday, November 30th, 2021
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: https://meet.google.com/xuf-hzwi-ifr

Title: Rating vs. Reviews: Does Official Rating Capture What is Important to Consumers? 

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between official ratings and consumer review scores. Hotel ratings aim to provide an objective assessment of the hotel quality and experience for potential consumers. These ratings are usually constructed and provided by an independent official hotel rating organization based on the hotel's observable attributes. However, consumer reviews frequently differ from official ratings. We use Star Ratings and consumer review scores from Booking.com for about 250 hotels in Dubai to explore their relationship and analyze their similarities and differences. Asymmetric information problems could dampen the demand in the hotel industry if ratings do not match the consumer views of hotel quality. In addition, substantial discrepancies between the two measures could provide competing interests for hotel managers to satisfy rating agencies' criteria or consumers' preferences, reducing the hotels' efficiency and effectiveness in offering the best experience and value to consumers.

Presenter(s): Emin Gahramanov
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Xueli Tang (Deakin University) and Shenghao Zhu (University of International Business and Economics)
Date: Tuesday, November 23rd, 2021
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: https://meet.google.com/eir-ickt-hit

Title: Marital Sorting, Family Output and Wealth Inequality 
Abstract: TBA.

Presenter(s): Ismail H Genc
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Lokman Gunduz and Mete Han Yagmur
Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: https://meet.google.com/iuc-djzx-ukj

Title: Impact of Syrian Immigration on House Prices in Istanbul 

Abstract: In this paper, we study the impact of forced immigration on house prices in a host country. In particular, we analyze the impact of Syrian refugee influx on house prices in districts of Istanbul as a result of a devastating civil war. Methodologically, we employ the difference-differences (DiD) model to identify house price variation during the 2014-2017 period with the inclusion of the control variables. We find a negative and statistically significant coefficient on DiD in all models. This means that house prices have declined in treatment (immigration) regions compared with control regions. Alternatively, house prices in the treatment (immigration) region increase less than houses in the control region. It also may mean that the immigration reduces house price increases in immigration region compared to the control (non-immigration) region. This is in conformity with the expectations of the residential segregation theory. It points to a likely observation that natives choose native dominant neighborhoods with better amenities. It may also signal potentially a native-refugee conflict along several dimensions.

Presenter(s): Dina Tasneem
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Mehnaz Rabbani, Semab Rahman
Date: Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: https://meet.google.com/pqw-xyzb-ttn

Title: Trust and Citizen Participation in Community Based Monitoring System: An Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh 

Abstract: We utilize the unique setting of a public procurement project in Bangladesh to understand the relationship between trust and citizen engagement in social accountability mechanisms. In this model of civic engagement, in each project site, a citizen-monitoring group is formed to oversee the quality of implementation and report any irregularities to the authorities. We investigate whether the level of trust in the community affects the performance of their citizen-monitoring group and/or the interactions resulting from the participation in the monitoring task affects the level of trust of the monitoring group members. We measure trust using both a simplified trust game and a survey. Our finding is inconclusive to the question of whether the trust level in the community affects the performance of the citizen-monitoring group. While we find no such indication from the trust games, the data on generalized trust from the survey shows a positive effect of trust on monitoring group activity. We find stronger support for the hypothesis that participation in the monitoring group affects the level of trust. According to our findings, the effect has been negative in this case.

Presenter(s): Ismail H Genc
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Mohammad Arzaghi (Economics, American University of Sharjah)
Date: Tuesday, March 23, 2021
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: Online (https://meet.google.com/yrc-qgcu-gwj) 

Title: Emerging Markets Currency Interconnectedness in the aftermath of Crises 

Abstract: Since international investors constantly reshuffle their portfolios in response to changing conditions, interactions among world economies are natural, which could potentially allow the spread of risks across countries. This is an example of the so-called contagion effect of financial/economic crises spread through spillover effects. In particular, five emerging market economies known as Fragile Five (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) present an interesting case study for the contagion effects in exchange rates markets. Issue is exacerbated especially in the aftermath of crises such as the Great Recession of 2008 and the Covid-19. Cognizant about international connectivity is also crucial in designing efficient monetary policies for decision makers. In this paper, we analyze the connectedness among these countries via Diebold-Yilmaz method. We find that Interconnectedness is not high among the currencies; the biggest contributor is still the “own” effects for all currencies.

Presenter(s): Mohammad Arzaghi
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Ismail H Genc, Shaabana Naik (Economics, American University of Sharjah)
Date: Tuesday, December 8, 2020
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: Online (https://meet.google.com/fft-wpmg-hsa)

Title: Clustering and Hotel Room Prices in Dubai 

Abstract: In this paper, we study the influence of the location and other hotel and room characteristics on the prices of hotel rooms in Dubai. The effects of different determinants are estimated using the hedonic price model for a cross-section of 250 hotel room prices in April 2020 in Dubai. In addition to the typical characteristics of hotels and hotel rooms such as hotel amenities, star rating, and room size, we include location characteristics such as accessibility to public transportation, airport, and local agglomeration and competition factors. Our results indicate significant and strong effects of accessibility to attractions, transportation, hotel's star rating, and room size, as we expected. Our empirical model can explain about 70 percent of the variation in the hotel prices in Dubai. We note that the star rating is highly correlated with hotel amenities (pool, gym, beach, etc.) and also the consumers' subjective review. In fact, the data indicates that the star rating, to a great extent, captures the influences of in-hotel amenities in the room price, and it is indeed a good proxy for the in-hotel services and amenities.

Presenter(s): Javed Younas
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Khusrav Gaibulloev , Gerel Oyun
Date: Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: Online (https://meet.google.com/wob-eqne-jcr)

Title: Conflicts and child sex at birth: evidence from Pakistan 

Abstract: Using insights from the literature on psychology and medicine, we examine the impact of stress-induced by conflict on child sex at birth. The psychological and social stressors associated with conflict prone events prior to conception trigger changes in maternal (and paternal) hormones that have an implication for birth outcomes. We extract data on 11,331 live births conceived between 2007 and 2012 from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-2013. The individual birth data are matched with household information from the same survey. The district-level data come from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey and the monthly conflict incidents information is taken from the Terrorism Database. The analysis relies on two sources of variations: mothers’ exposure to Conflict prior to conception and districts that experienced conflict. The district-level analysis shows that conflict-laden events decrease the number of live male births and increase the number of live female births. We confirm this finding with individual birth data by showing that conflict prone attacks prior to conception reduce the likelihood of a male birth. These results provide microeconomic evidence of the potential long-term impact of conflict on fertility and population dynamics. In societies with a strong preference for boys, the reduction in the number of male births can have implications for selective abortions. Moreover, these findings call for a better understanding of the link between such shocks and adult life outcomes including health, education, and income.

Presenter(s): Jay Squalli
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Date: Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: Online - Link: (https://meet.google.com/jmk-weuh-zmu)

Title: Issues with online tests

Abstract: The presenter is an early adopter of online testing environment. He will share his experience with online tests. He will also answer audience questions.

Presenter(s): Kevin Devereux
Affiliation: University College Dublin
Coauthor(s): Mona Balesh Abadi and Farah Omran
Date: Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060

Title: Correcting for Transitory Effects in RCTs: Application to the RAND Health Insurance Experiment

Abstract: Temporary randomized controlled trials are susceptible to transitory effects which may mislead inference. We find a large and significant `deadline effect' -- a surge in spending in the final program year -- in the RAND Health Insurance Experiment, identified by random allocation to three- or five-year enrollment terms. Participants facing lower coinsurance rates show larger spending surges. Controlling for this price-deadline interaction yields significantly smaller estimates of the long run price elasticity of drug spending (and in some specifications of outpatient care and medical supplies). This illustrates the importance of careful experimental design to identifying parameters of interest in RCTs.
 

Presenter(s): Usamah Al-Farhan
Affiliation: Sultan Qaboos University
Coauthor(s): Khaldoon Nusair, Hamed Al Azri, Saeed Al Muharrami
Date: Tuesday, February 4, 2020
Time: 3:00-4:00
Place: SBA2060

Title: Tourism Expenditure Differentials: The Effects of Differences in Targeted Utility and Markets Structures

Abstract: This paper aims at introducing hedonic mean-level and counterfactual quantile decomposition methodologies to the field of tourism economics, with the intention of stimulating future contributions to the investigation of tourist expenditures. Though rooted in labour economics literature, these methods allow for a better understanding of distributional differences in tourist expenditures as well as other tourism-related outcome variables, that are constructs of constituent characteristics and contributory values. With an application to Oman, we show that higher expenditures of high utility-targeting majority versus low utility-targeting tourists are explained by the formers’ higher willingness to buy, given their socioeconomic attributes and choices regarding trip-specific characteristics. Current market structures in Oman’s tourism industry do not contribute to the expenditure differential. Our results imply that revenues in Oman’s tourism sector could be maximized via efficient market segmentation and corresponding price differentiation, where higher utility-targeting tourists bear higher price levels, all ceteris paribus.
 

Presenter(s): Christian Rauch
Affiliation: Finance, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Bjorn Imbierowicz (German Central Bank)
Date: Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: The Pricing of Private Assets – The Case of Mutual Fund Investments in ‘Unicorn’ Companies

Abstract: The past decade has seen tremendous capital flow into private asset markets. To a large part, this development was driven by mutual fund investments in high-growth and mature startup companies which exceed a valuation of $1 billion, colloquially known as ‘Unicorns’. This development is interesting for two reasons. First, it offers detailed insight into the valuation and pricing of privately held assets by sophisticated institutional investors. Second, it allows us to study the development and features of a new type of asset class. We collect comprehensive information on 223 private asset investments made by 80 separate funds of eight US mutual fund managers between 2009 and 2018. Primarily, we study the features, pricing patterns and value drivers of these investments. Our data shows that, perhaps surprisingly, mutual funds invest not just in ‘Unicorn’ companies but also in a variety of smaller privately held high-growth companies. The analysis of the pricing patterns suggests that valuations are primarily driven by external (valuation-) events and the contractual features of the convertible preferred securities used for the investments.

Presenter(s): Khusrav Gaibulloev
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Gerel Oyun, Dina Tasneem, and Javed Younas
Date: Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060

Title: Developing healthy eating habits in children: Experimental evidence from UAE

Abstract: This paper uses experimental and behavioral economics approaches to identify effective interventions to develop healthy eating behavior at early age. We recruit over 1000 fourth-grade students from 20 public schools, which are randomly chosen from the four Northern Emirates in the UAE. We conduct four sets of experimental treatment among students: nutrition education in a neutral environment, nutrition education in an Arabic environment, religious priming, and food labeling. Health education is delivered by trained nutrition specialists following a carefully-designed comprehensive curriculum. The curriculum consists of 10 lessons and each lesson lasts for 45 minutes. The effect of alternative treatments on dietary choices is examined using lunch experiments. For nutrition education groups, the lunch experiment is repeated after 3 months to examine whether the effect lasts over a longer period of time. We obtain a rich set of information to control for various factors. A simple quiz of general knowledge on healthy eating is conducted among all participants. We survey the participants’ parents to obtain information about socio-economic characteristics and child behavior outside the classroom. The study contributes to the literature by examining potential mechanisms that effectively translate an individual’s health knowledge into health-promoting behavior. The findings hold important policy implications.
 

Presenter(s): Anis Samet
Affiliation: Finance, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Ali Mirzaei (AUS)
Date: Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060

Title: Ownership Structure, Macro-prudential Policies, and Credit Growth

Abstract: We examine how the banking ownership structure differently affects the response of banks to macroprudential policies. Specifically, we explore the interaction between foreign and government banking ownership structure and macroprudential policies on bank credit growth across different banks in developed and developing countries. Using a panel data set of 507 banks over the period 2000-2013, we find that the macroprudential-ownership interaction affects credit growth and the impact is statistically and economically significant and is robust after controlling for bank and country-level variables and endogeneity issues.

Presenter(s): Ayesha Ali
Affiliation: Economics, the Lahore University of Management Sciences
Coauthor(s):
Date: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: Countering Misinformation on Social Media Through Educational Interventions:  Evidence from Urban Pakistan

Abstract: The increasing availability of low-cost mobile Internet access in developing countries has led to the widespread use of social media platforms. Concurrently, the spread of misinformation on such platforms is also on the rise. Through household-level surveys, this research captures the trends in social media usage among low and middle-income users in Pakistan. A test, created with a list of actual news stories circulated on social media, is used to measure the extent to which users are likely to believe misinformation. Consequently, the research evaluates the effectiveness of two interventions for countering misinformation in a randomized control setting. The first intervention educates users about common features of misinformation through a video. The second intervention involves both showing an educational video and providing feedback to users regarding their past behaviors in engaging with misinformation. The results conclude that showing the video alone has no effect vis-a-vis countering misinformation. However, showing the video and giving personal feedback increases the ability of treated users to identify fake news by 11% relative to the control group.

Presenter(s): Kimberly C. Gleason
Affiliation: Finance, American University of Sharjah
Coauthor(s): Ujjal Chatterjee (AUS), Mina Glambosky (Brooklyn College, CUNY)
Date: Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: New Technology, Trading Costs, and Financial Markets: Evidence from Bitcoin

Abstract: Interest in Bitcoin is immense, in part due to distrust of fiat currencies, and the platform it provides for retail traders. Traders are often unaware of the costs associated with Bitcoin trading or the liquidity of the assets for speculative purposes. While the academic literature has offered insights into the efficiency of the Bitcoin market and the features of the Bitcoin time series, few studies examine the pricing of Bitcoin related blockchain technology assets. There is a gap in the literature regarding trading costs of Bitcoin relative to Bitcoin related products in the equity and derivatives markets. Furthermore, no studies to date have examined how the initiation of futures trading on Bitcoin has impacted the spot market.  In this paper, we examine the trading costs (both implied and quoted spreads) of Bitcoin and Bitcoin based assets in three markets: the cryptocurrency exchanges using the underlying Bitcoin, the equity markets using Greystone Bitcoin Investment Trust, and the derivatives markets using the newly introduced Bitcoin futures. We find that aggregated implied and quoted spreads across exchanges for Bitcoin, GBTC, and Bitcoin futures are comparable in magnitude, implying that fundamentals drive digital assets’ trading costs. Further, we find that while spot Bitcoin and Bitcoin futures prices are similar, GBTC trades at a 51% premium to the underlying Bitcoin in the equity market. Our results provide quantitative guidelines for the future development of financial products based on blockchain technology.

Presenter(s): Ismail H Genc
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Date: Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: Determinants of Hotel Room Prices in Dubai
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the determinant of hotel room prices in Dubai within the framework of a hedonic model. We employ both ordinary least squares and the quantile linear regression techniques to identify the covariates of room prices. In summary, we find that the size of the room, and proximity to a beach positively contribute to the price based on OLS. OLS also reveals that distance to downtown is a negative factor is room prices. On the other hand, QLS reveals a much richer set of findings such as varying importance of covariates at different quantiles. Other than academic interest, the issue of importance to policy makers and the business community.

Presenter(s): Ismail H Genc
Affiliation: Economics, American University of Sharjah
Date: Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Time: 4:00-5:00
Place: SBA2060
Title: The impact of technology on regional price dispersion in the US
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the behavior of prices (inflation) in the era of fast information dispersion made possible advances in technology in particular the internet. With the help of readily available information, prices, and by extension inflation, should quickly converge in a perfectly competitive market structure, generating a zero economic profit for companies. Thus, we explore the possibility of a price convergence in the form of a reduction in regional inflation in the United States. Related to that, we examine the permanency of such a phenomenon if observed, as it is a concern for the monetary policy makers. We do so, by analyzing the behavior of the standard deviation of inflation in a number of regions over time in the USA by employing univariate as well as multivariate models. A particular attention in the multivariate model is devoted to the role of technology. In sum, we show that the standard deviation of inflation is not constant over time, but we do not necessarily observed an ever-declining pattern.